Patrick 46%, Baker 39% and Cahill 10% in Latest Suffolk Poll

Poll Analysis from Jessica Van Sack:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1288667

Definitely not a good poll for Baker, but not as negative as many are saying. Can’t say I disagree with Van Sack, fallout from Cahill collapse appears to be helping Patrick.

Question 3, cutting sales tax to 3%: Support: 44%, Oppose: 49%

Question 1, repeal alcohol sales tax: Repeal: 46%, Maintain: 47%

Marginals: http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.MASS.Statewide.Marginals.pdf

CrossTabs: http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.MASS.STATEWIDE.TABLES.OCT.12.pdf

Poll Analysis later.

Update: Baker releases internal poll that has him up 7 points:

MEMORANDUM

TO: BAKER FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN

FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT: RECENT BAKER POLL DATA

DATE: OCTOBER 14, 2010

As you know, our firm recently completed a statewide survey in Massachusetts of 800 likely general election voters for the Baker campaign. The poll was conducted October 11-13 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Key Findings

1. Charlie Baker has taken a significant lead in the race.

For the first time in our polling, Charlie Baker has taken a significant lead in the race:

Governor Ballot:

Charlie Baker: 42%

Deval Patrick: 35%

Tim Cahill: 10%

Jill Stein 2%

Undecided 10%

Charlie leads among Independents by more than a two-to-one margin over Patrick (52%-23%), reflecting the trend we saw earlier this year with Scott Brown.

Charlie is now getting 64% of wrong track voters, 72% of voters who disapprove of the job Governor Patrick is doing, and 72% of “new person” voters. Baker is now the clear alternative for voters who want a change in the Corner Office.

Continuing a trend in this race, Charlie leads by a larger margin among voters most interested in the race – among voters who rate their interest in the upcoming election the highest, rating it 9-10 (62% of our sample) on a 1-10 scale, Charlie leads by a 50%-33%-8% margin.

While we’re seeing Democrats across the country close the” energy gap,” this is not the case here in Massachusetts.

2. Governor Patrick image hasn’t moved.

The Governor’s image hasn’t moved in quite some time. A majority of voters polled still have an unfavorable impression of Deval Patrick (45% favorable/51% unfavorable), and just 40% of voters polled believe that the Governor has done a good enough job to deserve re-election (compared to 55% who say they want him replaced).

Clearly, voters are looking for a change.

3. Baker’s positive image continues to grow.

Charlie Baker remains the only candidate with a positive image in the state:

Charlie Baker 45% favorable – 30% unfavorable Margin – +15

Deval Patrick 45% favorable – 51% unfavorable Margin – -6

Tim Cahill 28% favorable – 46% unfavorable Margin – -18

4. The tone of the campaign has turned negative.

Voters were asked their reaction to what they had seen, read or heard recently regarding the three candidates. All three candidates now have a negative “information flow”:

Charlie Baker 35% more favorable 42% less favorable Margin – -7

Deval Patrick 34% more favorable 45% less favorable Margin – -11

Tim Cahill 19% more favorable 58% less favorable Margin – -39

Bottom Line

Charlie Baker’s support continues to grow in the state, and he now has a significant lead over Gov. Deval Patrick, with a more positive image and a better information flow. The latter stages of this campaign reflect what we saw earlier this year with the Scott Brown race; Independent voters are coalescing behind the GOP candidate, putting Charlie Baker in a position to win this race.

h/t RedMassGroup

Internal polling generally has to be viewed with caution as there is likely an inbuilt bias. Still it’s an interesting alternative perspective. Public Opinion Polling, and Suffolk are both respected polling outfits. The only poll that really matters happens on election day. It will be interesting to see which of these polling companies turns out to be right.

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