Deval Patrick

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Town/City Precincts D. Patrick (i)
(Dem)
C. Baker
(GOP)
T. Cahill
(Ind)
J. Stein
(Grn)
Total 2120/2168 1,083,924
49%
930,892
42%
178,757
8%
32,106
1%
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The race is polling too close to call. Your decision today can make a big difference.

 

Deval Patrick’s Election Day Message:

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The Patrick campaign is not acting like it knows it is 7 points ahead in the polls. You ask the President fly in and stump for you two weeks before election day unless, like Martha Coakley, you think your campaign is in a little trouble.

Patrick’s introduction is really strong. He is still a great and charismatic speaker. But there is a huge difference in the enthusiasm the crowd shows Obama than they show Patrick. The video tries to tone down this difference by turning down the crowd noise and overlaying some music – but there is no denying it – that crowd was there for Obama only.

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Poll Analysis from Jessica Van Sack:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1288667

Definitely not a good poll for Baker, but not as negative as many are saying. Can’t say I disagree with Van Sack, fallout from Cahill collapse appears to be helping Patrick.

Question 3, cutting sales tax to 3%: Support: 44%, Oppose: 49%

Question 1, repeal alcohol sales tax: Repeal: 46%, Maintain: 47%

Marginals: http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.MASS.Statewide.Marginals.pdf

CrossTabs: http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.MASS.STATEWIDE.TABLES.OCT.12.pdf

Poll Analysis later.

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Patrick’s Ad – Moving Forward
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Baker’s Ad – Grateful for Union Support
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More video and analysis follows…

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The original post is on MassInc. The debate was at Suffolk University on August 16th, and focused on just Cape Wind.

Baker and Cahill come down against Cape Wind based mostly on cost and the massive subsidies to make it work. Patrick supports it based on the environmental benefits and on the jobs it creates. Patrick also cites how Cape Wind would protect Masssachusetts from cost volatility.

Stein is especially strong and convincing. She classifies herself as a commited environmental activist but opposes, like Baker and Cahill, based on cost and low cost efficiency. Where she really shines is how she calls out Patrick for taking contributions from Cape Wind interests, and for the closed door deals that got it done. She calls on the Governor to return contributions from Cape Wind lobbyists.

At one point Patrick calls Stein a “mole” and she retorts that “you have to be a mole to know what is happening on Beacon Hill.”

It is amazing to see the Green Party and Republicans largely in agreement. The debate ends up being to a large degree about transparency and insider “pay to play” contracts.

 

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Part 1

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Red Mass Group is reporting that Charlie Baker released an internal memo showing that his latest internal poll shows him within 7 points of Deval Patrick.

MEMORANDUM

TO: TIM O’BRIEN – BAKER FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN

FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE – PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT: RECENT BAKER POLL DATA

DATE: AUGUST 9, 2010

As you know, our firm recently completed a statewide survey in Massachusetts of 500 likely general election voters. The poll was conducted July 25-27 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases.

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YouTube Preview ImageThe Patrick campaign released a response to yesterday’s Mass GOP ad attacking Deval Patrick. This is a somewhat longer video that tries to convey more information. The Mass GOP ad was short and straight to the point. Today’s video from the Patrick campaign is interesting – but a lot less focused than the Mass GOP ad.

What do you think?

 

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YouTube Preview ImageThe Republican National Committee has launched a new – pretty effective – attack ad against Deval Patrick. Its a riff on the classic “Visa Priceless” ads that have become an internet idiom.

Republicans have been almost paranoid in their expectation that the Democrats would go negative in the gubernatorial race. This ad serves a double purpose – it is in itself an attack ad – but it also serves to warn the public to expect attack ads from the Patrick campaign in an effort to pre-emptively neutralize them.

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