State Senate Election Overview and Predictions

August 22, 2010 in State Senate by Massachusetts Election 2010 | View Comments

Massachusetts State House

There are 16 State Senate primary races. We have the Congressional races and House of Representative race primaries on their own pages.

We’ve divided the races into viable and non-viable races. Many that we are calling viable are races that will require the candidates to have Scott Brown like powers to win. Races that are particularly close or interesting are tagged in yellow.

Viable Races

The following primary races have candidates who are running strong enough campaigns that the contest is worth watching. Our threshold is pretty low. In some of these races, if the challenger won, it would be a surprise upset. These are all the races even remotely worth paying attention to.

 
2nd Bristol & Plymouth Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Michael Rodrigues (D) $155,571
» Michael Coogan (D)
» Lorne Lawless (D)
» John Mitchell (D)

Prediction: Rodrigues or Coogan

 
 
Cape & Islands Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Sheila Lyons (D)
» Dan Wolf (D)

Prediction:

 
 
Cape & Islands Senate District (Republican Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Eric Steinhilber (R)
» Jim Crocker (R)

Prediction: Steinhilber

 
 
2nd Essex & Middlesex Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Jack Wilson (D)
» Debbie Silberstein (D)
» Barry R. Finegold (D)

Prediction:

 
 
2nd Essex & Middlesex Senate District (Republican Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Patrick J. Rahilly (R)
» Jamison Tomasek (R)

Prediction:

 
 
1st Middlesex Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Christian L. Doherty (D)
» Eileen M. Donoghue (D)
This is looking like it could be another upset.

Donoghue as a two term Lowell Mayor comes into the race with higher name recognition in Lowell, and was expected to be race leader. Doherty is a former assistant district attorney, and was much less well known to voters.

But it seems to me like the candidates are now running fairly close now.

Doherty has turned out to be a great speaker. His supporters are younger and and more active. There were more Doherty supporters at the August 17th WCAP debate for example. He’s been gaining on Donoghue through this entire race. There are only three weeks left, but I think that is enough time for him to make it.

Prediction: Doherty

 
 
3rd Middlesex Senate District (Republican Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Eric Dalhberg (R) $11,406
» Sandi Martinez (R) $20,547

Prediction: Dahlberg

 
 
1st Middlesex & Norfolk Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Cynthia Creem (D) incumbent
» Charles Rudnick (D)
It was clear from early on that Rudnick was going to be a serious challenge to Sen. Cynthia Creem. He is an experienced campaigner and a good speaker.

Charles Rudnick’s positions on most issues are identical to Sen. Cynthia Creem’s. Some, like David Bernstein, questioned whether Rudnick would be able to differentiate himself from Creem enough to unseat a popular incumbent.

Rudnick has been able to differentiate himself not on policy differences but by making the case that he would be more independent, more accountable and more transparent than Creem. He has refused to take donations from lobbyists and PAC’s for example.

What has really shaken this race up is that the issue of whether Cynthia Creem has a conflict of interest with regards to several family court reform bills – being both chair of the Judiciary Committee and a practicing divorce attorney. The Globe in several (1,2) hard hitting articles essentially said yes.

This issue has put Creem on the defensive and it will be tricky for her to recover. The race is still likely to be close – but Rudnick has the clear advantage.

Prediction: Rudnick

 
 
Middlesex Suffolk & Essex Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Sal DiDomenico (D) incumbent
» Tim Flaherty (D)
DiDomenico won this seat by a narrow 170 vote margin in a special election just a few months ago. Tim Flaherty who has run for this seat three times now vowed a re-match.

If the race had been held the very next day, Flaherty would have won easily. But since that time, DiDomenico has been gathered 114 political endorsements and has been running an extremely strong campaign making deep inroads into the southern parts of the district where Flaherty is strong.

In a few short months, DiDomenico has proved to be an able Senator getting $3 million additional funding for his district in a very tight budget year. The race is now too close to call. Both candidates are running hard and leaving nothing to chance. This is one of the races to watch.

Prediction: DiDomenico

 
 
Middlesex & Essex Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Mike Day (D)
» Katherine M. Clark (D)
Both candidates are running strong well organized campaigns, but I give Day the edge.

Prediction: Day

 
 
Norfolk & Plymouth Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Arthur Stephen Tobin (D)
» John F. Keenan (D)
Quincy City Councillor John Keenan is running a decent campaign, but not one that seems nearly strong enough to unseat Tobin.

Prediction: Tobin

 
 
Suffolk & Norfolk Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Mike Rush (D) $6,423 incumbent
» Mike Walsh (D) $1,151

Prediction: Rush

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Non-Viable Races

The following primary races have non viable candidates who don’t have the campaign resources or organization to be credible challenges to their opponent.

 
 
2nd Suffolk Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Sonia Chang-Diaz (D) incumbent
» Hassan A. Williams (D)
Chang-Diaz is one of the leading lights of Massachusetts progressive legislators. Hassan is not running a strong enough campaign to be a credible threat.

Prediction: Chang-Diaz

 
 
Norfolk Bristol & Plymouth Senate District (Republican Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Bob Burr (R)
» Richard Livingston (R)
Livingston doesn’t really seem to have a campaign presence.

Prediction: Burr

 
 
1st Essex Senate District (Republican Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Sean Downing (R)
» Stephen R. Cole (R)
There was great potential for a Republican challenger to Sen. Baddour. His district has been turning sharply more conservative in the last two years and Baddour has a number of unpopular tax rises to answer for.

But neither Downing or Cole have much of a campaign up and running. Downing is running marginally better than Cole’s almost non-existent campaign. Downing is a smart guy. If he gets it together after the primary, that he’s almost sure to win, this may yet become a viable race.

Prediction: Downing

 

 
2nd Suffolk & Middlesex Senate District (Democratic Primary)
CandidateMediaFinanceNotes
» Steven Tolman (D) $155,116 incumbent
» William Feegbeh (D) $2
Feegbeh doesn’t have any campaign presence we can find.

Prediction: Tolman

 
 
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  • Brenda

    Wondering why you are predicting Rudnick over Creem. Do you have any data to support the prediction? Thanks.

  • http://massachusetts-election-2010.com Massachusetts Election 2010

    There are no polls that I know of to confirm it.

    This race in my mind was always going to be close. Creem is well liked in her district and Rudnick is an especially strong candidate for the district.

    But the story about Creem’s conflict of interest with Alimony Reform has been resonating with voters. She has not answered it well. She simply denies there is any conflict and I think people aren’t buying it – it is clear that her position does benefit her family’s law firm. So she is not answering voters concerns. She’s been on the defensive this entire race. Rudnick has managed to keep a good balance between voicing these concerns firmly without being unfairly aggressive.

    There was a question at the beginning of this race about whether Rudnick would be able to articulate clear advantages for voting for him given that his policy positions are similar to Creem’s. (e.g. David Bernstein’s article about Creem Rudnick http://bit.ly/b1XKH5 ) He has been able to do this effectively in the debates I’ve seen, and I believe voters in this district are the kind that listen to debates.

    The tide has been turning in Rudnick’s favor to a point that though the race is still close that I think Rudnick is now probably in a better position.

    In the end no one will really know until primary day.

  • Brenda

    Well, I hope this isn’t just wishful thinking, as I am a Rudnick supporter.
    My concern is that Creem has the backing of the party muckety-mucks (Warren, Dukakis, Coakley, etc.), and the Bar Association (lots of lawyers in Newton, Wellesley and Brookline), Young Democrats, etc. Being the newcomer/upstart in this race, do you think Rudnick can get out the vote better than she can?

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ATIL6AIXT2WWGMG2UYCSHJG56U Frank

    What about the 2nd Essex & Middlesex. Debbie Silberstein is running a strong race against Barry Finegold. She has got loads of endorsements – very unusual for a first-time candidate.

  • http://massachusetts-election-2010.com Massachusetts Election 2010

    Thanks for pointing that one out. I added it. Thanks.

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