State Election Primary Overview and Predictions

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by BradMarston and Kimberly Morin, MassElection2010. MassElection2010 said: State Election Primary Overview and Predictions http://bit.ly/cg7KYo #mapoli [...]

Hey stupid Cambridge is in the eighth not the ninth. The ninth tends to be more Conservative with the exception of Needham. Oh by the way not that I am a supporter of his, Sam Meas is Cambodian, and how is he well financed if your own coverage shows him with more than $6k in the hole. I thought this site was serious instead you guys are just another ill informed none fact checking hacks. NEXT TIME DO THE FRACKING RESEARCH. Winging it only confirms your site for the fools you are

Thanks for pointing out some of our errors. We make a lot of them. There are a lot of races to cover for a small number of people- and we don’t claim to be experts. This is all done by regular voters on our own time. We research as much as we can and try to be accurate.

Yes – Meas is Cambodian. And I’m sure Cambodian-Americans would be sensitive to that given the history of the region.

As for Meas financing. The bottom line of a campaign finance report – which is what gets put in that box doesn’t tell the whole financing story. First the reports only come out infrequently as dictated by law. The current financial state of a candidate is always different than the most recent report. That is just an indicator. And often candidates – can take in a lot of money and also spend it quickly resulting in negative balances. I’ll look into the financing picture a little more – but I believe that Meas has the financial means personally to keep himself in the race. I’m not saying he stacks up to the amount of money that say Niki Tsongas has – but he is not in the situation of most challengers where they have shortages of money so severe that they aren’t viable.

I should have checked the district map for the 9th Congressional – it sure doesn’t extend as far north as Cambridge. Actually looking at the map it makes me wonder a little more where D’Alessandro is going to get the kind of progressive votes he needs. Not the southern parts of the district like Brockton.

There is no reason to be a jerk. If you want our data to be more accurate, why don’t you volunteer to help do research. The more people help, the more accurate we can be.

The Cape & Islands Senate Seat has TWO primaries, as Sen. Rob O’Leary has left the seat open. Jim Crocker and Eric Steinhilber are the two Republicans and Dan Wolf and Shelia Lyons are the two Democrats. Both races are likely to have strong primary showing due to the two Congressional primaries as well for the Delahunt open seat. You really should investigate these races.

In the Mass 5th – there is one badly flawed candidate. Jon Golnik of Carlisle failed to register to vote for 8+ years. He failed to tell his big $$ contributors, failed to tell his campaign workers and volunteers, failed to tell the press. When discovered he BLAMED it all on George W. Bush! He also failed to tell folks exactly WHO he worked for on Wall Street.

Yeah, Jon’s got money, and looks good in a dark suit, but he only knows the buzz words, not the issues in any depth. And he’s already admitted that he’s “have to think about” voting for an unconstitutional bill. Hmmmm.

He also seems unable to control his supporter [goon] who keeps knocking down Sam’s campaign signs.

With 3 MUCH better candidates, let’s not try replacing Tsongas’ empty head with an empty suit. I’m voting for Sam. Sam signed a Contract with the voters, and I believe he’ll honor both that contract and his oath.

Sources?

I hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiighly doubt “Doherty is in the lead and gaining momentum.” Actually, I think that’s a pretty asinine statement. Some of these other predictions just seem silly to me, too. What’s the point about making predictions if you don’t know jack about the race? Blah.

Ryan,

Help me out. I’d love to improve the race insights with people who have more perspective on some of these races. I only go by what I can see online and talking to people on the ground. There are a lot of races and the more people who report back the better I can do. Just post back your insights here, or email them to me (editor@massachusetts-election-2010.com) and I can integrate them into the story.

This is a work in progress and I’d like to make the article as good as I can.

Sorry. I had those in the candidate database with a typo make them not show up on this page. They are up there now. I’m not sure who is running strong for the Democratic primary. Is if Wolf or Lyons?

[...] are 13 State Senate primary races. We have the Congressional races and House of Representative race primaries on their own [...]

I don’t think you can judge support for a candidate by the #s of people who show up at a debate, or who are on Facebook, both of which are of dubious importance to an actual race. I’m biased, of course, because I know one of my best political friends is very involved in pushing for Donoghue, but the fact that she’s all in (and hasn’t been discouraged thus far) suggests, to me, that Donoghue’s doing fine.

Don’t get me wrong… maybe you’re right, about a lot of these races for that matter. It just seems to me to be a bit of a total guess. Instead of posting about projections, when there’s little to base those projections on, why not just focus on getting the input of readers for how they’re doing? It may not be as sexy and drive as many links, but it would be a lot more meaningful and honest.

Ryan,

You’re right my predictions are based – like anyones for most of these races – on guesses. For the most part there are no public polls for most of these. But anyone who watches these races like you and I do have a sense for how a lot of them are going. And our guesses are a good starting point for these.

The race between DiDomenico and Flaherty is like that too. I’m in contact with DiDomenico’s people and I support him and they are feeling like they are going well for example. So right now I have a sense that they are going to make it. But the race will be close and there is no hard data right now about who is really ahead. One thing is for sure – over the last few months they have been narrowing the gap with Flaherty and I think they are ahead at this point. But no one really knows.

Again, I’d love to have more people give insight to these races. This is all over the state and I can’t be everywhere or know people in every district. I’m happy to take advice from anyone who is close to the action on any individual race.